Three years ago, when the economy was booming, the Bank of New Zealand began discussing an eventual slow down. It told businesses not to expect a recession and to keep investing to boost productivity and cut costs.

More recently the Bank has been inviting people to pay close attention to the relatively strong economic data coming out suggesting not only that the economy is having a comfortable soft landing but that some sectors may be improving. The Bank has drawn attention to improving indicators in the housing market, rising net migration inflows, the surprisingly strong September quarter numbers for retail spending, and accelerated growth in exports, along with strong recoveries in consumer and business confidence readings.

This week the Bank’s monthly Business Outlook survey offered further indications that the rate of growth in the economy has probably bottomed out.

The Bank’s survey of business activity expectations in November showed that expectations improved to a net 23.7% positive from 18% positive in October. A low of -4.4% was reached in February this year. The latest figure is above the10 year average for the month of November of 22.2% positive.

This is the first time the monthly reading has been above its average level since March 2005. The Bank of New Zealand believes the figures indicate a likely growth rate for the economy of 2% to 2.5%.